A long, long time ago, during the peak of globalization, when the World Trade Organization began to spark intense protests and demonstrations on the streets of South America and Hong Kong, and there was increasingly a cultural movement against globalization, I proposed my theory back in 2003. I believed that an era of fragmented global space had arrived. Based on this theory, I made a series of predictions, including that an era of de-globalization would inevitably come, American influence would wane, an era of American conservatism would emerge, and several regional hegemonic powers would become more prominent on the world stage.

All these predictions were made many years ago, not today. Today's state of affairs is merely a test of these predictions. Yet, the very same issues are still fervently discussed by commentators.

The key question is: what will the future hold?

I believe an "era of autonomy” is imminent. The impact of fragmented global space is profound; fragmentation is not just occurring on the surface of today’s world map. The great power influence emphasized by offensive realism is just one aspect. There is another aspect that offensive realism has not addressed: fragmentation is deepening further, like cracks in ice extending downward and spreading outward. Ultimately, this fragmentation will alter the world map of both today and the future.

Take Lebanon as an example. It is a country with two main religions. The conflict between these two major Abrahamic religions has persisted for decades, until the rise of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, which gave the Islamic side the upper hand. Even so, the situation in Lebanon has not fundamentally changed. Despite strong interventions from regional hegemons like Israel and Iran, the religious and social realities in Lebanon remain unchanged. No one single faction can completely control or eliminate the other, and a single-religion state cannot be established.

The moment for rationality will eventually arrive because there are few remaining geopolitical solutions. The best political solution is complete autonomy, establishing truly reliable and internationally respected borders, essentially resulting in two Lebanons. The Christian Lebanon would be North Lebanon, and the Islamic Lebanon would be South Lebanon, each becoming a recognized nation. This would create the fundamental conditions necessary for ending the conflict or for reasonable intervention by major world powers in the future.

Politics is not only related to war but also to politics itself. Starting a war is easy, but ending it is not. The predicament of Israel in Gaza illustrates this point. The history of political movements shows us that mass movements are akin to "unlimited liability companies”, where civilian sacrifices and social mobilization are endless. At the same time, a nation is akin to a "limited liability company”, holding a global status but subject to international opinion and moral oversight, with clear constraints. Most importantly, breaking these constraints requires enormous costs and sacrifices.

When a political movement becomes a nation, it must take on the responsibilities of a nation. When the world allows a political movement to remain in a state of mass mobilization, war and casualties become hard to avoid. This is because the pursuit of a political movement is almost limitless; political appeals always require increasingly grand objectives and are fundamentally without national boundaries.

Lebanon exemplifies this, and the same is true elsewhere in the world. In an increasingly fragmented world, a trend that many are still reluctant to accept is the rise of autonomy. The growth of autonomous regions and the formation of new national boundaries are inevitable developments. Compared to war and large-scale casualties, this trend is a positive shift rather than something to be feared. The political, media, and commentators worldwide should adjust to this emerging reality.

As for the distant future, whether fragmentation will eventually lead to further integration, communication, and a new form of unity, all these will become clear in the next era of globalization. For now, it is crucial for people to focus on the practical realities of today, establish more boundaries rather than fewer, and strive to prevent even more serious issues from arising.