The communication ecosystem built on mobile phones relies on two things, namely wires and electricity. After Hurricane Helen ravaged the United States, the devastation was widespread, with communication towers destroyed, lines damaged, and power sources unreliable. At this moment, Starlink satellites acted as a bridge and provided hope for many people in the disaster-stricken areas. Not only did it offer the usual Starlink satellite internet service, but the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) also urgently authorized SpaceX and T-Mobile to use Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell (DTC) functionality to provide SMS and emergency broadcast services to areas affected by the hurricane.
In fact, Hurricane Helene has accelerated the launch of Starlink's DTC satellite service ahead of schedule. Recent reports indicate that SpaceX has already deployed more than 220 Starlink satellites equipped with DTC functionality. With Elon Musk's large-capacity rocket system, the number of satellites is not a constraint, bringing him closer to reaching the threshold. According to previous statements from SpaceX, around 300 DTC satellites are needed to provide mobile direct-to-satellite services to U.S. users.
The main challenge now is the "DTC Starlink Battle", which has intensified tremendously. Not only are the two leading U.S. carriers, AT&T and Verizon, vehemently opposed to it, but major European operators are also against the initiative. As a result, Starlink's goal of DTC connectivity is overshadowed by an industry-wide struggle. This battle will undoubtedly exact a significant cost on Musk in the future. The road ahead is anything but easy.
Musk's strategic thinking, in simple terms, can be explained as follows: typically, the concept involves end devices receiving signals from Starlink satellites, which are then converted into WiFi signals to provide internet access; this being the Starlink satellite network service. However, if users could directly connect their phones to Starlink satellites, bypassing the WiFi step, that would be more convenient. As a result, Musk proposed the idea of Starlink DTC. On the surface, the goal is to eliminate all mobile cellular network "dead zones" in the U.S., but in reality, Musk aims to create a completely new global network ecosystem. As this implies telecommunication being monopolized by Musk's company, it has sparked the collective backlash from current network operators, hence the root cause of the opposition.
If we deconstruct Musk's strategy, we can identify the following characteristics of future technology:
1. By enabling direct mobile-to-satellite connectivity, the mobile phone becomes the basic terminal for satellite communication, effectively making everyone a satellite phone user. This would render the current base station systems and network operators obsolete. Satellite direct connection would create an entirely new infrastructure system, which I refer to as the "space-coverage network". This network effectively nullifies the vast investments made in traditional infrastructure.
2. Direct mobile-to-satellite connectivity creates an entirely new system space, which means that the operating system platform for mobile devices will either emerge or need to be replaced. This implies that existing operating systems, including Apple's iOS, could be supplanted by Musk's new system, or they may have to become subordinate companies, functioning as lower-level systems. All software and apps would need to run on the new operating system platform.
3. Satellite phones do not require phone numbers at all. With a satellite phone, text, video, and voice can be transmitted instantly through space, just like using video and voice on messaging apps. However, in the future, these social media platforms will certainly be controlled by Musk. For instance, people will likely use X (formerly Twitter) instead, rather than apps like WhatsApp, unless these currently popular platforms are willing to pay to be integrated into Musk's system as third-party add-ons.
4. Once the "space-coverage network" is established, the devices required for daily life and work will be able to operate without boundaries, making the ideal Internet of Things (IoT) a reality. Want a chilled bottle of water in a remote desert area? A drone will deliver it to you immediately. Want to control a production line on a yacht in the Pacific Ocean? Simply take out your phone. To take it a step further, you could even lie in bed and command an unmanned army in battle.
5. A truly unified global market will be realized immediately. The "space-coverage network" effectively breaks through boundary limitations, not only rewriting global geopolitics and power structures but also enabling the seamless exchange of global resources. It will fulfil demands to the greatest extent possible, even in deserts and oceans, leading to the creation of a genuinely unified global market. The World Trade Organization will have no reason to exist.
6. Humanity will be able to conditionally enjoy high-quality services from around the world, including global healthcare, global insurance, and global legal support. All these services will become truly global. As long as one meets necessary conditions such as financial resources and moral legality, these services will be easily accessible, with no objective obstacles in the way.
7. Global relations will change as a result of the realization of the "space-coverage network". Its advent greatly narrows spatial distances, making it much easier to break through national borders. The limitations of borders, including the role of network firewalls, have become almost negligible. Countries around the world may increasingly focus on seeking coordinated development rather than competition or dominance. When facing challenges, seeking help from Musk may become more effective than turning to the United Nations.
Thus, humanity has moved from the "local area network" to the "wide area network", then to the "internet", and now to the "space-coverage network". Technology has led the world further and further, from the ground to space, yet at the same time, the relationships between people are becoming closer. A new ecosystem is taking shape. What we see through the reverse strategic deconstruction is exactly this scenario: the "space-coverage network" is actually building an entirely new system ecosystem. It is not just an industry, nor merely a sector; it is a way of life, a mode of existence, an ecosystem.
It is foreseeable that Musk's "space-coverage network", in order to achieve its full strategic goals, will need to expand its profit margins and increase its market share. To do so, it must integrate with artificial intelligence and robotics, developing in a synergistic manner across these three major systems. Only then can they achieve a high degree of compatibility and maximize their effectiveness.
The "space-coverage network" is changing the world of the future, and Musk has already made preliminary progress toward realizing such goals. As it stands, he is deploying satellites with DTC functionality at an astounding pace. As early as two years ago, SpaceX partnered with U.S. carriers like T-Mobile to conduct technical tests using the 1910–1915 MHz and 1990–1995 MHz frequency bands in the United States. Text messaging has already been solved, and video transmission is in progress; theoretically, there are no issues. The future challenges will clearly lie in more complex areas such as politics and business cooperation, and this is likely why Musk is collaborating with Trump. President Biden's speech before leaving office warns of "tech-industrial complex" which actually stems from the same concerns. If Biden's words are only understood as internal "political struggles" within the U.S., while not completely wrong, it represents a dangerous misunderstanding.
Understanding this is to understand the reality of the future.
Anbound Japan practice (Nagomi Management LLC)
5-14-3 Shimouma Setagaya Tokyo Japan
Capital Tsukuba, 1-3-2 Sengen Tsukuba, Japan
Inquiries about services, products, publications, news releases, websites, interviews, and other information to contact:
Michiko Sekido (Michiko.sekido@anbound.com) ; Takahiro Sekido (Takahiro.sekido@anbound.com)