Following Vladimir Putin's re-election as the Russian President, he initiated changes in the Ministry of Defense, where Sergei Shoigu has been replaced as defense minister by technocrat economist Andrei Belousov. While corruption concerns persist within the Ministry, Putin's decision primarily stems from strategic reasoning. Shoigu's role has been narrowed to overseeing production, diminishing his authority, while an economist has assumed his former position. Putin's motivation for this move lies in his assessment that Russia has gained leverage and stands a good chance of achieving favorable negotiation outcomes.

The negotiation results Putin seeks are essentially in line with what we have previously assessed, that is, occupying and controlling the eastern Donbas region to form a strategic buffer, and creating a peaceful environment on the basis of expanding Russian territory (Eastern Ukraine and Crimea). These basic requirements have not changed from the past to the present; only during times of war, Putin cannot openly state them.

Putin's current assessment is as follows: 1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is unlikely to amend his mistakes; 2. The West is pushing for Ukraine's negotiations; 3. The Russian army can continue to maintain its advance; 4. Ukraine's pursuit of hosting a peace summit is a major negotiation opportunity, and there may be a chance for European peace to be achieved at this summit.

These assessments are based on the conditions that the Russian military, without proper preparation in the direction of Kharkiv, hastily launched a full-scale attack and continues to maintain pressure on Zelenskyy on the battlefield. At the same time, the other condition is that the United States has not provided Ukraine with urgently needed weapons and equipment, such as Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. Even if the financial issues were resolved, the necessary weapons and equipment might not be provided to Ukraine, which is with the aim of maintaining pressure on Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian President's new military leadership has indeed yet to demonstrate the ability to stabilize the front lines. Lastly, internal instability signs are emerging within Ukrainian society, including morale issues within the

To reverse the situation for the Ukrainian military, Zelenskyy must undertake significant efforts and show strong determination. However, it appears that he has not taken these decisive actions. On the contrary, indications of faltering confidence have emerged, leading to doubts about his own charm and abilities. Furthermore, neither Europe nor the U.S. is fully committed to supporting Ukraine. These factors currently underpin and justify the aforementioned assessments.

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Kung Chan is the founder of ANBOUND, an independent think tank.