Whether Donald Trump will become the next Republican President of the United States remains to be seen. Assuming he does secure the presidency, which is quite likely, what implications might this have for China's future international landscape?

A noteworthy observation is that Trumpism, particularly concerning China, is fundamentally rooted in economic populism. This tends to benefit China's current economic trajectory as it prioritizes maximizing America's economic interests without becoming overly entangled in political or other concerns. Such a stance could potentially simplify the intricate dynamics between the U.S. and China, actually making things more predictable. Effective management of trade issues by China could lead to resolution of many trade conflicts with the U.S. This stands in stark contrast to the progressive stance of the Joe Biden administration, which often involves extensive and ideologically complex political concepts and principles with uncertain outcomes.

Trump's most notable traits, i.e., his outspokenness, tendency to easily offend, and his "toxic" rhetoric, will persist. However, the robust institutional framework of the U.S., including Congress, the civil service, laws, and established intellectual groups, can largely mitigate the challenges posed by Trump's personal flaws. There is no reason to doubt the efficacy of the American system, validated over its 240-year history and tested through the complexities of World Wars I and II. While Trump himself may be perceived as erratic in certain respects, Trumpism as a phenomenon is not irrational; it operates within a framework of national rationality to a certain extent.

The Trump administration's primary focus will be tangled up in domestic political issues. In Congress, there will be fierce partisan battles, with each of Trump's policy actions closely scrutinized by the Democratic Party and left-leaning American media, who amplify these actions without reservation. Many traditional American news outlets have abandoned neutrality and objectivity, transforming into tools of left-wing political propaganda catering exclusively to intellectual circles. They often exceed legal boundaries to prejudge Trump, resulting in declining readership and viewership, driven by intense political conflict. Confronted with such significant internal friction and challenges, Trump himself is undoubtedly keenly aware of the high time costs of his tenure. Therefore, his emphasis on international trade will likely exceed that of his first term, as he consistently seeks decisive outcomes.

However, for China, such a Trump is not frightening, as long as it has sufficient strategic patience.

While China will continue to face confrontational entanglements with both American parties and even a united front from the West, which is certain, it still has the opportunity to have greater strategic flexibility than during the Biden era. Trumpism tends to lean towards pushing the U.S. towards isolationism, resembling the Gilded Age of the last century. The U.S. economy is expected to benefit greatly from Trump's focus on economic issues, potentially even echoing the brilliance of the Gilded Age to some extent. However, in the geopolitical arena, this will give more space to the world due to the American isolationist sentiments and positions, thereby stimulating and encouraging more ambitious actions from regional hegemonic powers such as Turkey, India, Iran, Israel, and even the Houthis. These rising powers will emerge in various corners of the world and certainly make the world more dangerous, though it will also provide China with greater opportunities for survival and development.

In reality, the actions of the Trump administration will be extremely challenging because he essentially needs to restructure the American industrial order. He must persuade American corporate giants to act uniformly and mobilize capital from Wall Street to cooperate, which are clearly daunting tasks. Therefore, Trump's actions will mostly be seen in the realm of international relations and trade. Hence, trade wars, trade frictions, sanctions, and counter-sanctions will become commonplace. However, since the time of Vasco da Gama, world trade has always been like this, differing only in degree. It has never lacked solutions to disputes and one can name negotiations, appeals, legal actions, public opinion, sanctions, counter-sanctions, lobbying, investment, interest exchanges, industrial restructuring, and technological upgrades. As long as there is demand in the market, active participants in international trade will always find ways to keep things moving forward on track.

The real challenge lies in the long-term sustainability of Trumpism. Trump's running mate is JD Vance, who is actually a more idealistic Trumpist. In 4 or 8 years, Vance may mature further and could inherit Trump's position, becoming the new generation Republican President. In this way, Trumpism could become entrenched, setting the tone for American politics for a long time to come. Opposition voices from the establishment such as liberalism and progressivism will likely weaken over time. At that point, a new political landscape will emerge in the world. It is foreseeable that conservative politics in Europe will also take center stage, leading to a more fragmented global political environment. A wave of conservatism will sweep across the world, not just in the U.S.

Under such circumstances, China faces both opportunities and challenges. Its greatest challenge lies within itself, where overly idealistic policies can be detrimental in reality. The future cornerstone of China's economy must undoubtedly be its exports. Despite the severe current downturn in China's economic growth rate, there are still outstanding export performance data, which is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Such a scenario presents the risk of pursuing profit at all costs, disregarding how other countries feel about trade, which can lead to economic populism pitted against economic populism, eventually escalating into complete and divisive confrontations, thereby squandering China's international opportunities. Therefore, what China should be most vigilant against is trade extremism and should adopt smoother trade strategies, as Japan and South Korea have long proven, to resolve trade disputes. Business dealings, as long as they are conducted in a business-like manner, always find a way to work out positively.

Trumpism has caused fear in many people, with Europeans harshly criticizing Trump for many years. They forget that criticizing Trump is indirectly insulting at least 150 million Americans who supported him in the elections. This brings to mind a viral photo taken in 2018 showing former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and a group of G7 leaders surrounding Trump, where he appeared to be alone and defenseless.

As it stands, the growing rift between Europe and the U.S. is inevitable. The European leaders fail to realize their lack of foresight, relying only on a few who understand Trump, like Boris Johnson. Most European politicians fail to reduce the possibility of future estrangement between Europe and the U.S. China will not and should not follow this path because, as predicted here, China has the opportunity during the Trumpism phase to improve relations with the U.S. Issues that can be resolved financially are not major problems, especially when it comes to Trumpism.